I’ve stared deep into my crystal ball…
What’s that I see? An extra day! We’ll have 366 days in 2024.
That’s more time for my predictions to come true.
Top Predictions for 2024
- Apple Vision Pro
- Bitcoin Hits a New High
- The Fed Drops Rates
- Biden Steps Down
- Same World Order
- No Taiwan Invasion
- Tesla Cybertruck
1. Apple Vision Pro
Apple refuses to use the word metaverse. But its new headset will mark a pivotal moment for the metaverse. It’s a huge stamp of approval. Apple is the largest public company in the world for good reasons. It has a proven track record of building and scaling consumer tech.
With a $3,500 price tag, Apple Vision Pro will start with early adopters. You’ll see them in the hands of developers and pro-consumers. But in the years ahead, the software and hardware will improve. At the same time, prices will come down.
One overlooked winner will be Meta. As Apple brings more people to AR and VR, some will turn to lower cost headsets such as the Meta Quest 2 ($249) and Meta Quest 3 ($499). They’re some of the best on the market today.
2. Bitcoin Hits a New High
I wouldn’t bet the farm on this one… or even a cow. I worked in Beijing with a crypto company close to 10 years ago. And I sent out close to $500,000 worth of Bitcoin in 2017. However, I’ve mostly stayed on the sidelines. I see too many reasons Bitcoin will fail in the long-term.
Nonetheless, I still think there’s a good chance of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high. The next halving is coming in the first half of 2024. And past halvings have led to a run-up. With more awareness of Bitcoin this time around (and this trend), I wouldn’t be surprised to see new highs.
3. The Fed Drops Rates
The Fed will cut rates a few times in 2024. As predicted with the past rate hikes, many areas of the economy have slowed down. As a result, inflation has come down and the Fed now has more wiggle room to lower rates. However, I don’t predict cuts coming soon.
We’re seeing mixed signals in the economy with some strong consumer spending. There’s a lag effect of rate changes. But as spending continues to stretch thin, we’ll likely see the cuts in the second half of 2024. This will be a boost for the housing market and many other areas.
4. Biden Steps Down
If elected, Biden would start his second term at 82 years old. And I don’t believe old age alone is a reason not to serve. But there’s a correlation with age and health (mental ability). And it comes down to what American voters believe.
On both sides of the aisle, Americans are noticing Biden’s health and mental acuity decline. We’re seeing this with his limited public appearances. And that’s one of a few big reasons I’m predicting Biden will step down in the 2024 elections. He’ll use the standard playbook, saying he wants to spend more time with family. And Biden will endorse [redacted]
5. Same World Order
The wars in Ukraine and Israel have shaken up geopolitics. And we’ll see big headlines for both in 2024. However, the overall conflicts will abate, and we won’t see reshuffling of major countries. If anything, there’ll be some new lines drawn in Ukraine and Israel. These recent wars are also a litmus test for others…
6. No Taiwan Invasion
Both the U.S. and China have kept a close eye on the recent wars. And Taiwan continues to be a potential flashpoint. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more saber rattling in 2024, but tensions have eased with Xi Jinping visiting the U.S.
Looking further out, many people predict a China-Taiwan conflict within the next four years. And this is where I’ll extend my 2024 prediction… I doubt we’ll see a big physical conflict at all. Instead, it’ll continue to be a slow game of economic and political control.
Taiwan is an important chess piece today due to its advanced chip production. However, this will shift in the years ahead. Many countries are moving to in-house chip production.
7. Tesla Cybertruck
EVs will continue to grab market share. I picked up a new Model Y at the start of the year and have driven close to 23,000 miles. They’re great cars and the Tesla price history shows even better deals down the road.
Tesla isn’t the first to sell an electric truck. Ford and Rivian beat Elon to the punch. However, the Cybertruck will be the best bang for your buck (if you can get your hands on one). Tesla started deliveries at the end of the year, and it’ll take most of 2024 to ramp up production.
Outside of weight and range, the Cybertruck beats gas trucks in every key area. And Tesla will continue to pull ahead with future updates. It’ll take time, but traditional truck drivers will follow suit. And this is anecdotal… but I know many of them.
Runner-up Predictions for 2024
- AI goes through the trough of disillusionment
- Cyberattacks surge
- Quantum qubits climb
- Streaming war consolidation
- Weight loss drugs tip the scales
- Human lifespan climbs
- The stock market goes [redacted]
Keep in mind that a broken clock is right twice a day. Even though, most of my predictions for 2024 aren’t too wild. And I could easily expand on all these topics.
If you find these ideas thought-provoking, feel free to share them with others. And reach out with any comments or questions. Because your support motivates me to keep sharing ideas.